Baghdad, Al-Sharaa and Trump’s shadow

Baghdad has the unusual ability to force its visitors to open up about the past and its pains. The ability becomes more pronounced when the friends choose to have dinner on the banks of the Tigris, only to find out that the current resort was once one of Saddam Hussein’s palaces.

I believe people are like pledges and ideas, just passengers in the train of time. The only difference between the passengers is their destination and the impact they leave behind. The guardians of the past travel toward it and even drown in it. The men of the future strive to remove the rubble and escape the prisons of fear. Much can be said about this, but for now let us leave the past to the past and look to the present.

Baghdad hosted the 34th Arab League Summit at the weekend to deliver several messages. The first was that Baghdad is stable, secure and capable of hosting such a major event without security measures, which can be exhausting for a city and its residents.

The second was that Baghdad is aware of the importance of joint Arab work and opportunities to activate it, as it has an interest in collective cooperation and consultations. The third was that Baghdad is committed to so-called Arab principles, whether those relate to the two-state solution or searching for negotiated solutions to treat wounds in fractured Arab countries.

Al-Sharaa has often told his guests, both in the open and privately, that Syria will not be a source of concern to any of its neighbors

Ghassan Charbel

Journalists know from experience that the discussions that take place on the sidelines of a summit are no less important than what goes on inside it. Journalists in Baghdad noted two major issues that dominated discussions at the summit. The first was Syria after the handshake between US President Donald Trump and interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa and the American administration’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria at the encouragement of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Many noted that Al-Sharaa received an extraordinary dose of Arab and international support, leaving neighboring countries with no choice but to normalize ties with Syria and cooperate with it.

I wanted to know what impression people who have met Al-Sharaa had of him. I came up with the following:

Al-Sharaa is a pragmatic man who knows very well what land he is treading, the complications that come with Syria’s geography and its difficult relations with its neighbors.

He is trying to ease doubts about his extremist past and insists that he will not adopt extremist positions in his current policies. He has often told his guests, both in the open and privately, that Syria will not be a source of concern to any of its neighbors. This includes Israel, the guests at the summit concluded.

Some have heard him say that confronting Israel through traditional means has led to the current unfolding disasters. The only choice left for Syria is to consolidate its unity and stability, build its economy, ensure the return of the displaced and then invest its Arab and international ties to exert diplomatic pressure on Israel. This simply means ending the military conflict with Israel, which is no easy task for whoever is calling the shots in Damascus.

The visitors also sensed that Iran and Hezbollah topped Al-Sharaa’s list of opponents, while he believes that Russia can keep its bases in Syria because that aligns with its interests.

Many agree that the greatest challenge to Al-Sharaa fulfilling the pledges he made to the American administration is the nature of the forces that worked with him on ousting Bashar Assad’s regime, because it would spell the end of the time of armed factions.

Many visitors noted the role the crown prince played in Trump’s rapid change in positions on Al-Sharaa. This reflects Saudi Arabia’s growing influence in Washington, while it continues to boast excellent ties with China, Russia and Europe.

The visitors expect Saudi Arabia to play a major role in resolving conflicts raging in the region.

The other development that cast a shadow over discussions in Iraq was Trump’s visit to the Gulf and his extraordinary stop in Riyadh.

Several participants at the Baghdad summit said the visit put an end to talk that the US had grown tired of the Middle East and that it wanted to shed any responsibility toward its future. Trump’s visit demonstrated that talk about a multilateral world order was premature because the US remains the world’s dominant military and economic power and passing through Washington remains mandatory for anyone seeking solutions to difficult crises, from Gaza to the Iran nuclear file.

Passing through Washington remains mandatory for anyone seeking solutions to difficult crises, from Gaza to the Iran nuclear file

Ghassan Charbel

The participants said it was likely Washington and Tehran would reach an agreement because the consequences of sliding toward a confrontation would be costly both for the region and the global economy, while also putting Baghdad in a very difficult position.

Some believe that Tehran has no doubt that the features of some parts of the region have changed, specifically the countries in which Qassem Soleimani was active and had invested militarily, politically and economically. They implied that Iran has started to reassess its experience of recent decades because everything that is happening will affect its security, the size of its role and its presence in the region.

Some participants acknowledge that Israel has become much more powerful as a result of the wars sparked by the Al-Aqsa Flood and that Trump is the only person capable of reining it in or easing its hostile behavior.

Baghdad is assessing Al-Sharaa’s experience and trying to figure out the leanings of Trump’s shadow, especially when it comes to Iran. Baghdad’s preoccupation with these files will not distract it from the parliamentary elections that are set for November.

The road toward the elections is clouded by Muqtada Al-Sadr’s shadow, if he decides to run in them, the shaping of a brutal battle within the Coordination Framework, and by Nouri Al-Maliki’s drive to prevent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani from securing another term in office.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.