Trumpist zeitgeist gives Turkiye room to maneuver

US President Donald Trump’s historic visit to the Gulf last week captured global attention. His trip also coincided with a series of high-stakes talks held in Turkiye that involved actors from both East and West, signaling Ankara’s growing influence in bringing together sides that clash over both material interests and ideology.

In a fragmented world order, where the diplomacy of the global powers is faltering, Turkiye is seizing the moment, leveraging its geostrategic position and capitalizing on its status as a middle power. Moreover, it is the Trumpist zeitgeist that gives Ankara room to maneuver in global politics, positioning it as a key actor in the new era of diplomacy.

Since the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, Turkiye has played an active role in attempting to bring both sides to the negotiating table. Some efforts, such as the grain and prisoner exchange deals, have been successful, while others have fallen short of their intended goals. As part of its ongoing effort to bring the war to an end, Turkiye last week hosted delegations from Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul.

While neither Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky nor Russian President Vladimir Putin attended, these talks were still highly significant. They marked the first direct discussions between the two nations since the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Although no ceasefire agreement was reached, the talks emphasized the importance of direct political meetings that involve Putin and Zelensky.

The Trump administration dispatched Secretary of State Marco Rubio to attend the proceedings, highlighting the growing hopes for a diplomatic resolution — a goal that Turkiye’s leadership, particularly President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been seeking for years.

In addition to these peace efforts, Turkiye hosted an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers, underscoring the increasing importance of European defense in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the shifting dynamics of global geopolitics, there has been growing pressure for Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities, especially amid the US administration’s stance that Europe should not rely on Washington for its security. This is where Turkiye, with its strong army and advanced defense industry, appears as a close partner for the European states’ interests.

Perhaps due to Ankara’s growing importance in the eyes of the European states, a fresh round of nuclear talks between Iran and the European troika (the UK, France and Germany) also took place in Istanbul on Friday. These talks centered on the ongoing indirect negotiations between Iran and the US regarding a potential new nuclear deal. Since taking office again in January, Trump has revived his so-called maximum pressure campaign on Iran, even while expressing support for nuclear diplomacy, albeit with the looming threat of military action should that fail.

Turkiye seeks to pursue a policy based on soft power to carve out a more prominent role in the emerging regional order.

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Turkiye’s political elite seeks to pursue a policy based on soft power, particularly mediation, to carve out a more prominent role for Ankara in the emerging regional order. For years, Erdogan has demonstrated an exceptional ability to read the global zeitgeist and the diplomatic meetings hosted by Turkiye are a testament to this.

Beyond Turkiye’s engagement in peace talks over Ukraine, Syria and NATO, a significant development has unfolded that further underscores the nation’s rising regional power. The PKK, a militant Kurdish faction, last week announced its intention to disarm and disband as part of a peace initiative with Turkiye. This would mark the end of a four-decade insurgency that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and strained Turkish politics. Efforts by past Turkish governments, including Erdogan’s, to resolve the conflict through legal settlements have failed. However, this development signals a potential turning point, further solidifying Turkiye’s position as a key player in the region.

Trump’s policies and his shifting approach to diplomacy have undeniably influenced international politics. However, the Trumpist approach appears to be favoring Turkiye’s activism, as it has paved the way for Ankara to play a more active role in regional and global politics.

In the region, the beginning of Trump’s second term quickly followed the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, a development that saw Turkiye emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries. Trump’s decision last week to lift sanctions on Syria was a crucial moment. Erdogan virtually joined a subsequent meeting with Trump, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa in Riyadh, signaling a new era of cooperation.

Ankara and Riyadh have lobbied extensively for the US administration to ease sanctions on Syria’s government. Today’s climate seems to favor middle powers such as Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, which seek to avoid a global system in which decisions are made solely by major powers, sidelining their own interests. This new geopolitical trend, where regional middle powers exert increasing influence, is part of a broader shift in the international order.

Although Trump’s visit did not include Turkiye on the itinerary, it is clear that Erdogan’s diplomatic acumen and his government’s foreign policy strategies have been welcomed by the White House. Trump has repeatedly highlighted Erdogan as a significant partner capable of delivering on pragmatic, realpolitik strategies.

Turkish officials had long anticipated that US-Turkiye relations would improve during Trump’s second term, following years of strain. It now seems like Turkiye’s bet on Trump is, in many ways, paying off and the Trumpist zeitgeist is creating a favorable environment for Ankara’s foreign policy, as the US focuses on addressing key foreign policy issues such as the war in Ukraine and integrating Syria into the international fold.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz