2025 - The return of Donald Trump

WASHINGTON D.C.: For a newspaper covering the Middle East, there is no shortage of moments vying for selection as the most significant news event of 2025.

Scarcely a day passes without a fresh development in the ongoing conflict triggered by the Hamas terror attack on Israel in October 2023, which inaugurated a cascade of tragedies throughout the region.

Hamas continues to hold Israelis hostage, keeping them and their families suffering unspeakably. Hamas’s refusal to turn the hostages over and surrender has trapped civilians in war’s crossfire, effectively holding Gazans hostage too, rather than allowing Gaza to rebuild free from the grip and tyranny of terrorists. Tens of thousands of civilians have lost their lives.

Yet what has transpired in America may soon be seen by historians and geopolitical analysts alike as the most significant event to have taken place in 2025 — with seismic repercussions for the Middle East and, indeed, the entire world.

It does not minimize the importance of the latest in a series of generational tragedies ensnaring Palestinians and Israelis, to suggest that a political event that took place more than 9,500 kilometers away is itself a generational story.

From a purely American perspective, the inauguration and return to the White House of Donald J. Trump on Jan. 20 this year was, without doubt, the single most remarkable political comeback in US history.

Elected president for the first time in November 2016, Trump’s political career appeared finished — at least to his detractors — when Democratic candidate Joe Biden was sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021.

Trump, however, then did what only one other American president has done before. Returning to the fray, in November 2024 he handily defeated Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee and, in so doing, became only the second president, after Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century, to win two non-consecutive terms of office.

In January this year, buoyed by his large Electoral College victory and popular vote mandate — and with the Republican party, now largely shaped in his image, controlling both houses of Congress — President Trump hit the ground running. His four years out of power allowed him to further hone and develop the ideas and policies that would build on the successes of his first term.

His first two months back in the Oval Office have been a blur of activity that has left observers at home and abroad stunned, some frustrated and many impressed. World leaders are scrambling to understand and adapt to a dynamic new US administration determined to put America, and Americans, first in all things. Perhaps these observers and leaders forgot that this was what Trump said he would do, and that it is his job.

On March 10, the White House issued a statement titled “50 wins in 50 days,” highlighting Trump’s achievements to date. Many of these were, of course, domestic in nature, addressing concerns close to the heart of his support base: controlling immigration; cutting bureaucratic red tape, waste and fraud; appointing Elon Musk to run a new Department of Government Efficiency; ending federal diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives; and much more.

But ever since his first term, when he ushered in the Abraham Accords, Trump has harbored a determination to bring peace to the Middle East — or at least those parts of the Middle East in which that is realistically achievable — and in 2025 he has wasted no time returning to that ambition.

During those first 50 days, President Trump restored pressure on Iran; redesignated the Houthis in Yemen as terrorists, unleashing a series of airstrikes to end their attacks on Red Sea shipping; and proposed a bold plan for peace and prosperity in Gaza.

Since the president’s return to office, one of the major questions surrounding his administration has been how it will handle foreign affairs. There are, of course, many factors at play, including the extraordinary complexity of regions experiencing conflict.

But having served as his envoy to Middle East during his first term, and having worked closely with him for 20 years prior to that, I have observed how the fundamental approach that defines President Trump’s diplomatic philosophy remains consistent: speak truth even when others are mired in diplomatic platitudes, envision deals that provide all parties with realistic achievements, and focus on what they truly need rather than what they publicly demand or what their leaders promise.

President Trump approaches problems from a realistic perspective and seeks to fix them, not to adhere to conventions. He deals with the here and now, not the state of the world years ago, nor as we wish it to be. He treats conventional wisdom as a reflection of possibly outdated truths.

I witnessed firsthand how conventional wisdom can become an obstacle to progress, particularly when it calcifies into dogma that resists adjustment.

I still recall the skepticism that preceded our efforts on the Abraham Accords. John Kerry, the former US secretary of state, exemplified the entrenched thinking dominating Middle East diplomacy with his dismissive “no, no, no” regarding the question of whether Arab-Israeli peace was possible without first resolving the Palestinian issue. He had mistaken an unscientific consensus for an immutable truth.

By ignoring failed consensuses and focusing instead on shared interests and possibilities, President Trump proved Kerry wrong, wrong, wrong.

This success was not accidental but resulted from President Trump’s deliberate strategy of challenging assumptions, speaking honestly about realities on the ground, and letting new thinking flourish.

For today’s challenges, particularly the devastating Russia-Ukraine war, this approach offers great promise.

Bringing in new US partners as conflict mediators is a valuable element of Trump’s global strategy. Saudi Arabia’s emerging role as a diplomatic broker presents an opportunity that aligns with President Trump’s preference for unconventional pathways to peace.

Nations without the historical baggage of failed negotiations can secure trust and buy-in from opposing sides precisely because they represent a clean slate. The Saudis, and the leaders of other Gulf states, such as the UAE and Qatar, are also generally immune to the Western condition of calcified dogma, allowing them to think more pragmatically on many issues.

Within the Middle East, the core American interests remain clear: foster peace between nations, combat terrorism, and contain disorder. I expect President Trump to seek opportunities for the reduction and elimination of regional conflicts with pragmatic optimism, and I am optimistic about the potential for breakthroughs precisely because his plain truths force potential partners to snap out of diplomatic complacency.

There are areas of the Middle East, such as Lebanon and Syria, where Trump’s methods might finally help them turn the corner and build a better future. It has been decades since that was even a possibility.

Sometimes, meaningful progress requires disrupting expectations. In diplomacy, the most profound achievements often come not from refining existing processes but from fundamentally reimagining what is possible.

My money is on Trump knowing how to put the pieces together. He simply gets things done.

Will Donald Trump’s return to the White House still appear to have been the most significant event of 2025 when this year draws to a close? I think so. I think it will be the most significant event for many years to come, both domestically and abroad.

As the White House statement on March 10 noted, “President Trump is just getting started.”

• Jason Greenblatt was the White House Middle East envoy in the first Trump administration. He is the author of the widely acclaimed book ‘In the Path of Abraham,’ and director of Arab-Israel diplomacy for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.